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January 16, 2014

Sereda S.N. Estimation of the ecological risk with fuzzy models

Estimation of the ecological risk with fuzzy models

Sereda S.N.

This work is devoted to the system analysis of the possibility of the application of the fuzzy set and models for the estimation of the ecological risk and the system safety. Probabilistic safety analysis is widely used in system analysis for solution of practical tasks of assessment and protection of various processes and systems. In this case it uses a model of a tree incident, showing the causal relationships between the leading event (accident, catastrophe) and their basic assumptions of its occurrence. Often when predicting the safety of the newly designed objects, the values of the probabilities of the prerequisites are not known precisely due to the lack of theoretical models to assess a priori probabilities or the lack of statistic data. In addition, they can be represented interval values, or linguistic (verbal) qualitative characteristics of the background-the causes of the accidents. Therefore, the fuzzy model for evaluation of safety and environmental risk are often used. The interval description indicator of fuzzy values is both a criterion of reliability of the safety assessment. Since an increase in the interval leads to increased uncertainty probabilities, and thus to reduce the degree of reliability of the assessment. Purpose of the work is definition of the character of changes of the criterion of reliability of the changing parameters of the fuzzy set values in the model tree incident. Also the results of the analysis confirm the possibility of application of fuzzy models for the analysis of safety processes and systems at an acceptable level of confidence are given.

Keywords: the model of the system, the evidence tree, the probability of the event, fuzzy set.

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«Engineering industry and life safety» №3 (17), 2013. Pages: 15-20

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Sereda Sergey Nikolaevich – Ph.D., Murom Institute of Vladimir State University, Murom, Russia. E-mail: sereda-2010@mail.ru



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